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Only two days prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just who would win overall, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots added later and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously went for Zohran now. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but remain around 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on the island with a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for the independent. So there was some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.